Pulse industry leaders are petitioning the USDA to approve pulse-based pasta and flours for school meals, a strategic push to integrate plant-based protein into institutional settings.
Despite a surge in plant-based food dollar sales, unit sales and investment are declining, indicating a maturing or challenging market. A sector where value growth outpaces consumer purchasing volume.
Consequently, the plant-based protein sector will likely pivot towards policy changes and institutional markets like school meals to secure future growth, rather than solely depending on retail consumer demand.
A Growing Market, But Still Niche
- $7.9 billion — The U.S. plant-based retail market totaled this amount in 2025, according to Gfi.
- $3.9 billion — Plant-based food sales in the U.S. retail market totaled this amount in 2017, according to gfi.org.
- 1.4% — Plant-based meat and seafood's share of total retail packaged meat dollar sales, according to gfi.org.
The U.S. plant-based retail market nearly doubled from $3.9 billion in 2017 to $7.9 billion in 2025. Yet, plant-based meat and seafood products hold only 1.4% of total retail packaged meat dollar sales. The market has grown significantly in value but remains a niche player in the broader meat sector.
Cooling Consumer Demand and Investor Confidence
| Metric | Period | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plant-based Investment | 2022 | $1.3 billion | Choicesmagazine |
| Plant-based Investment | 2023 | $907 million | choicesmagazine.org |
| Plant-based Unit Sales | 2024 to 2025 | Down 3% | gfi.org |
| Plant-based Meat Alt. Unit Sales | 2021 to 2022 | Down 3% | choicesmagazine.org |
Investments in the plant-based protein sector plunged 28%, from $1.3 billion in 2022 to $907 million in 2023, according to choicesmagazine.org. Simultaneously, plant-based unit sales dropped 3% from 2024 to 2025, mirroring a 3% unit decline for plant-based meat alternatives from 2021 to 2022, as reported by gfi.org and choicesmagazine.org. A significant cooling in both consumer purchasing volume and investor confidence is confirmed, signaling market headwinds despite continued dollar growth.
Navigating Regulatory Hurdles for New Markets
USDA regulations currently mandate an additional protein source when schools serve pulse-based pasta as a meat/meat alternate, reports Capital Press. The Food Buying Guide for Child Nutrition Programs further complicates this by omitting chickpea, lentil, and dry pea flours, burying bean flour in an appendix. Industry groups are pushing for pulse-based pastas to count as stand-alone protein and vegetable, and for pulse-based flours to be creditable in school meals. The aggressive lobbying effort aims to dismantle policy barriers and unlock significant market access in institutional settings, shifting reliance from retail demand to policy-driven procurement.
Redefining Competition in the Food Industry
The plant-based industry's aggressive lobbying for pulse-based products in school meals, as detailed by Capital Press, marks a critical pivot: from relying on consumer choice to seeking guaranteed demand via government policy. The strategy reveals a struggle to sustain growth in competitive open markets. The shift towards institutional markets could redefine food industry competition, opening large-scale procurement opportunities for plant-based producers and potentially challenging established meat and dairy suppliers. The focus moves from individual consumer preferences to securing high-volume contracts through policy changes.
The plant-based protein sector, facing retail headwinds and declining investment, will likely see its future growth determined by successful policy changes and deep penetration into institutional markets.
